NORTHERN CALIFORNIA / NORTH INTERMOUNTAIN
California buying cools as Oregon exports accelerate
The Western market split this week: California demand eased from very good to good and confirmed tonnage fell, while Oregon export movement increased sharply. Small-bale grass hay remains the strongest segment, and higher diesel costs create delivered-price risk.
What changed
California confirmed 8,673 tons, down from 19,720 tons in the prior report, and USDA described dairy and retail demand as good. Oregon moved in the other direction: confirmed tonnage rose to 14,225 tons, led by a 10,100-ton Premium export-alfalfa trade at $220–$225 FOB. These are reported transactions, not a uniform market price.
Pricing and demand
North Intermountain dairy and farm hay: Good large-square alfalfa traded at $190 per ton FOB to dairies, Fair/Good at $180, and Fair farm-and-ranch hay at $185. No new Premium or Supreme large-square trade was reported, so the recent $240–$260 Premium dairy range remains a benchmark rather than a verified current-week price.
Small-bale alfalfa: Premium North Intermountain alfalfa traded at $225 per ton and $12–$13 per three-tie bale. Good alfalfa traded at $10 per bale. Bale volume increased even while tonnage declined, indicating a different mix of retail and larger-volume trades.
Orchardgrass and timothy: Premium North Intermountain orchardgrass held at $16 per three-tie bale on contract and $17 spot. Klamath Basin orchardgrass also traded at $17, while Premium timothy traded at $20. These are horse and retail values, not feeder-grass benchmarks.
Export and ranch demand: Oregon export buyers purchased more hay, including 10,100 tons of Premium Lake County alfalfa at $220–$225 FOB. USDA said export movement was slowly increasing, while ranchers appeared to slow feeder-hay purchases.
Dairy and end-market signals
Western milk supply was steady, and cheese plants could readily secure milk. Domestic and food-service cheese demand was described as below expectations. The practical read is that dairy buyers have forage needs, but current economics do not support aggressive bidding on every stack.
Water and drought
Lassen County remained dry, and Oregon reported broad drought exposure. Dry conditions support the forage balance, but they do not guarantee that a low-quality or high-cost late cutting will be profitable.
Fuel and freight
California diesel increased sharply in the issue’s cited EIA reading. Every delivered quote should be recalculated, with shorter quote validity until fuel costs stabilize.
Fertilizer, power, and regulation
National retail nitrogen prices softened, while phosphate remained expensive. The operating implication is to rebid nitrogen separately from phosphate and compare delivered local quotes. No consequential new Lassen-area irrigation curtailment, agricultural electric-rate change, farm-labor rule, or effective fertilizer regulation was identified in the brief.
What to watch next
- Selling: Move ordinary Good and Fair alfalfa when demonstrated bids meet the farm’s margin requirements.
- Quality: Keep Premium horse and export lots segregated and priced to their specific attributes.
- Inventory: Prioritize moving weathered, dry-baled, weedy, or otherwise discounted hay before carrying it deeper into winter.
- Freight: Recalculate every delivered quote as diesel changes.
- Inputs: Rebid urea and UAN, but evaluate phosphate independently.
- Next report: Watch whether California’s lower tonnage is temporary and whether Oregon export buying continues.
Manager’s bottom line
This is not a uniformly strengthening market. Premium grass and export-quality alfalfa retain leverage, but California dairy and ranch channels show more resistance. Sell commodity hay when the margin is acceptable, protect Premium lots with quality-specific terms, and pass freight changes through delivered bids.
Sources: USDA California Direct Hay Report, September 11; USDA Oregon Direct Hay Report, September 11; USDA Dairy Market News; U.S. EIA diesel prices; Drought.gov; and California Water Watch. GB Hay commentary is AI-assisted and should be reviewed alongside current reports, grades, bale weights, terms, freight, and live bids before transacting.